Talk of a food crisis, always brings out the Maltusians.

 

Malthus was that famous economist who gloomy predicted that we would all overpopulate and starve to death.  Today, some modern Maltusians are predicting high fuel costs will dramatically change the global food trade. Shipping fresh produce around the world will soon be too expensive and we’ll all be reduced to canning produce grown within a100-mile radius of our homes.

 

The predictions of Malthus were nonsense 200 years ago, and so are those of his heirs.

 

Sure, high energy costs will spur us to develop new production technology. Perhaps nano technology will yield new solar panels that will allow fresh produce to be grown in insulated domes in Canada for most of the year. That would be a marvel – but it wouldn’t be cheap to do.

 

It’s also likely that transportation will change.  The combination of hydrogen fuel, new materials and modern avionics could make commercial cargo airships available within five years.  Such airships use little fuel, produce no emissions, and can economically transport heavy bulk goods long distances.

 

 

Airship technology is proven and aerospace giants like Boeing and Lockheed-Martin are investing its development. Future airships could allow North American cities to continue to get cheap, fresh produce from Central and South America, as well as Asia.

 

And we would have good reason to, because the No. 1 cost in the production of fresh produce is labour. Cheap labour is as big a reason as climate why the so many fresh fruit and vegetables come from the south.

 

Those hoping that high energy costs will herald a new golden age for local food are dreaming. We will have to find other reasons to save our farms and orchards from urban sprawl.

 

Trade has long been our road to economic progress and will continue to be. High fuel costs may put an end to the overnight jetting of fresh produce to North American cities, but more efficient transport – whether that’s trains, boats or airships – will step up to fill the gap.

 

For CBC commentary, I’m Barry Prentice, professor of supply chain management at the Transport Institute at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg.