The high stakes in grain marketing
By Brenda Tjaden
August 18, 2008
Like any grain marketing consultant, I can rightly be accused of self-promotion whenever I suggest that farmers should think twice about doing their own marketing.
Still, you have to ask yourself why farmers pay a company like FarmLink. Does hiring a marketing advisor make or cost you money?
It’s an old question, but one that’s taken on new significance given the huge rise in grain prices this year.
Farmers make dozens of marketing decisions every year and any single one could affect their bottom line by $20,000, $50,000 or even $100,000. It’s become a high-stakes, high-stress business.
Some producers aren’t bothered by that. They find it exhilarating, even fun. But that does describe you?
The other thing that has changed is the complexity and volatility in today’s markets.
Volatile times
When I began as an analyst, a five-cent, one-day change in corn or wheat futures was such a rare event that we’d talk about it for weeks. Today, we shrug off 20-cent swings as ho-hum non-events. Moreover, figuring out what’s driving the volatility is a much harder job because there have been big changes on the demand side. Ethanol, increased buying from China and India, and hedge funds have made forecasting – already an inexact and complicated business – that much tougher.
Almost without exception, I find that producers are way more informed about prices and market moves than even five years ago. But they find it hard to consistently stay on top of things. You can’t take a few weeks off because you’re harvesting or seeding, and expect to stay current.
Developing and implementing a marketing plan is like doing your taxes: Yes, you can do it yourself, but do you really want to? And more importantly, will it save – or cost – you money?
For CBC commentary, I’m Brenda Tjaden Lepp, co-founder and chief analyst of FarmLink Marketing Solutions in Winnipeg.